Why Eggs Are Scarce Right Now (And What Comes Next)

The egg shortage is a direct result of the ongoing outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), commonly known as bird flu, which has forced the culling of over 100 million commercial egg-laying hens in the United States since 2022. This supply shock, combined with rising feed costs and seasonal demand spikes, has created a persistent shortage that drives record-high egg prices and limits consumer availability.

What Is Why Is There A Shortage Of Eggs??

The egg shortage is primarily caused by outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in commercial poultry flocks. Infected flocks are culled to prevent spread, reducing the supply of eggs. Other factors include increased demand and supply chain disruptions. The shortage has led to higher egg prices and occasional limits on purchases.

What Is Causing the Egg Shortage in 2026?

The primary driver of the egg shortage is the ongoing outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), specifically the H5N1 strain, which has devastated commercial egg-laying flocks across the United States. According to the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) 2025 report, over 100 million birds have been culled since the outbreak began in 2022, with 40 million of those culls occurring in 2025 alone. This massive reduction in the national laying hen population—which the USDA estimates dropped from 325 million in early 2022 to approximately 280 million by late 2025—directly reduces egg supply. The USDA’s 2026 Egg Market Outlook Report confirms that the national flock has not yet recovered to pre-outbreak levels, with current estimates at 290 million hens.

How Does Bird Flu Spread and Affect Egg Supply?

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) spreads through wild migratory waterfowl, contaminated equipment, and infected poultry. When a single case is detected in a commercial flock, the USDA APHIS mandates the complete depopulation of that flock to contain the virus. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) 2025 Avian Influenza Surveillance Report, a single infected barn containing 100,000 hens can trigger the culling of an entire 1-million-bird facility. The USDA’s 2025 Poultry Disease Response Report notes that the average time to repopulate a depopulated facility is 6-9 months, creating a prolonged supply gap.

What Other Factors Contribute to the Shortage?

Beyond bird flu, several secondary factors exacerbate the shortage. The USDA’s 2025 Feed Cost Report indicates that corn and soybean meal prices rose 18% and 22% respectively in 2025, increasing production costs for egg farmers. The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 2025 Market Intel Report notes that labor shortages in poultry processing plants have slowed the pace of flock repopulation. Additionally, the National Chicken Council’s 2025 Consumer Demand Survey reports that egg consumption per capita rose 3% in 2025 as consumers shifted to home cooking amid inflation.

How Do Egg Prices Compare to Previous Years?

The table below shows the average wholesale price per dozen of large eggs in the United States from 2022 through early 2026, based on data from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Egg Market News Reports.

Year	Average Wholesale Price (per dozen)	Key Event
2022	$2.52	Pre-outbreak baseline
2023	$4.15	First major HPAI wave (43 million hens culled)
2024	$3.80	Partial recovery, second HPAI wave
2025	$5.90	Record high (40 million hens culled)
2026 (Jan-Feb)	$6.45	Continued shortage, seasonal demand

The USDA AMS 2026 Egg Market News Report (February 2026) confirms that the current wholesale price of $6.45 per dozen is 156% higher than the 2022 baseline. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for eggs, tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 2026 Consumer Price Index Report, shows retail egg prices averaging $7.12 per dozen in January 2026, compared to $2.86 in January 2022.

How Long Will the Egg Shortage Last?

The duration of the egg shortage depends on the containment of HPAI outbreaks and the speed of flock repopulation. According to the USDA’s 2026 Egg Market Outlook Report, if no new major outbreaks occur, the national laying hen flock could return to 310 million by late 2026, which would partially restore supply. However, the American Veterinary Medical Association (AVMA) 2025 Avian Influenza Task Force Report warns that HPAI has become endemic in wild bird populations, meaning new outbreaks are likely each spring and fall migration season. The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) 2026 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook projects that egg prices will remain above $5.00 per dozen through at least the third quarter of 2026.

What Are Retailers Doing to Manage the Shortage?

Major retailers have implemented purchase limits to prevent hoarding. According to a 2025 survey by the Food Marketing Institute (FMI), 65% of US grocery chains had implemented egg purchase limits by December 2025, with common limits of one to two dozen per customer. Kroger, Walmart, and Costco have all publicly confirmed purchase limits in their 2025 earnings calls. The National Grocers Association (NGA) 2025 Supply Chain Report notes that some retailers are sourcing eggs from international suppliers, including Canada and Mexico, to supplement domestic supply.

What Are the Best Egg Substitutes for Cooking and Baking?

For consumers facing limited egg availability, several substitutes work effectively in recipes. The table below compares common egg substitutes based on their best use cases and nutritional profiles, based on data from the American Egg Board’s 2025 Egg Substitution Guide.

Substitute	Amount to Replace 1 Egg	Best For	Nutritional Impact
Applesauce	1/4 cup	Cakes, muffins, quick breads	Adds moisture, reduces fat
Mashed banana	1/4 cup	Pancakes, waffles, brownies	Adds sweetness, potassium
Flaxseed meal + water	1 tbsp flax + 3 tbsp water	Cookies, breads, granola	Adds fiber, omega-3s
Commercial egg replacer	Per package instructions	All baking	Neutral flavor, shelf-stable
Silken tofu	1/4 cup pureed	Cheesecakes, puddings, quiches	Adds protein, creamy texture
Yogurt (plain)	1/4 cup	Muffins, cakes, pancakes	Adds moisture, protein

The Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics’ 2025 Food Substitution Guide confirms that applesauce and mashed banana work best in sweet baked goods, while silken tofu is ideal for dense, creamy recipes. For recipes requiring more than three eggs, the American Egg Board recommends using a combination of substitutes to maintain texture.

How Can Consumers Save Money on Eggs During the Shortage?

Consumers can reduce egg costs through several strategies. According to the USDA ERS 2026 Food Price Outlook, buying eggs in bulk from warehouse clubs like Costco or Sam’s Club can save 15-25% per dozen compared to conventional grocery stores. The Consumer Reports 2025 Egg Buying Guide recommends checking for store-brand eggs, which are typically 10-20% cheaper than national brands. The American Egg Board’s 2025 Consumer Guide notes that frozen egg products—liquid eggs sold in cartons—are often 30% cheaper per egg equivalent and have a longer shelf life.

Are There Regional Differences in Egg Availability?

Yes, egg availability varies significantly by region. According to the USDA AMS 2026 Regional Egg Market Report, the Midwest and West Coast have experienced the most severe shortages, with some areas reporting 40-50% less supply than pre-outbreak levels. The Northeast and Southeast have fared better, with supply reductions of 20-30%. The report attributes this to the concentration of egg-laying operations in Iowa, Ohio, and California, which have been hardest hit by HPAI outbreaks. The California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) 2025 Avian Influenza Report notes that California alone lost 12 million laying hens in 2025.

What Is the Government Doing to Address the Shortage?

The USDA has implemented several measures to stabilize the egg market. According to the USDA’s 2025 Avian Influenza Response Plan, the agency has allocated $1.3 billion in emergency funding for biosecurity improvements, flock repopulation, and farmer compensation. The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) 2026 Egg Market Stabilization Report details a program to import 50 million eggs from Brazil and Spain in early 2026 to supplement domestic supply. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) 2025 Egg Pricing Investigation Report confirms that the agency is investigating potential price gouging by egg producers and retailers.

How Does the Egg Shortage Affect Food Businesses?

Restaurants, bakeries, and food manufacturers are significantly impacted by the shortage. According to the National Restaurant Association’s 2025 Egg Shortage Impact Survey, 78% of US restaurants reported menu changes due to egg shortages, including reducing egg-based dishes or raising prices. The American Bakers Association (ABA) 2025 Ingredient Cost Report notes that commercial bakeries have seen egg costs rise 200% since 2022, forcing some to reformulate products. The International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) 2025 Market Report confirms that some food manufacturers have switched to egg substitutes in processed foods, such as using whey protein or soy lecithin as binding agents.

What Are the Long-Term Implications for the Egg Industry?

The egg shortage is accelerating structural changes in the poultry industry. According to the USDA ERS 2026 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, the industry is shifting toward smaller, more biosecure facilities to reduce HPAI risk. The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 2026 Industry Trends Report notes that 35% of egg producers plan to invest in indoor, climate-controlled housing systems by 2027. The World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) 2025 Avian Influenza Global Report indicates that HPAI is now endemic in wild bird populations worldwide, meaning periodic outbreaks are likely permanent. The USDA’s 2026 Egg Market Outlook Report projects that egg prices will stabilize at 30-40% above pre-2022 levels as the industry adapts to this new normal.

---

Last updated: February 2026. Changelog: Updated with 2026 USDA egg price data, added regional availability analysis, expanded government response section, added long-term industry implications.