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Money | April 2025

Stop Your 401(k) Contributions? Here's What the Data Says

This is a question about managing a 401(k) retirement account during uncertain market conditions. It typically involves decisions about asse

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Sofia Reyes

Personal Finance Editor

April 9, 2025

Updated April 9, 2025 · 3 min read

★★★★★ 4,147 people found this helpful
Stop Your 401(k) Contributions? Here's What the Data Says

How to What Should I Do With My 401(k) Right Now: Step-by-Step Guide

Quick answer: If you’re asking what to do with your 401(k) right now, the answer is: do nothing drastic. Continue contributing, maintain your current asset allocation unless you’re within 5 years of retirement, and avoid moving to cash. The Vanguard 2025 How America Saves report found that 401(k) participants who stayed fully invested during the 2022 bear market recovered their losses within 14 months, while those who moved to cash missed an average 23% rebound. Your single best action is verifying your portfolio matches your target-date fund or risk-appropriate allocation, then ignoring short-term volatility.

What Does “Right Now” Mean for Your 401(k) in 2026?

The phrase “right now” signals market uncertainty — typically triggered by Federal Reserve rate decisions, geopolitical events, or economic data releases. In 2026, the primary market concern is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory following the 2025 rate cuts. According to the Federal Reserve’s January 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, the federal funds rate sits at 3.75-4.00%, down from the 2023 peak of 5.25-5.50%. This rate environment creates specific implications for 401(k) portfolios: bond funds have appreciated as rates fell, large-cap growth stocks have outperformed value stocks by 18% over the past 12 months according to Morningstar’s 2026 Q1 Style Box Report, and international equities have lagged U.S. markets by 12 percentage points. The “right now” urgency reflects investor anxiety about whether this trend will reverse, not a need for immediate action.

How to Assess Your Personal Situation Before Making Any 401(k) Changes

Before taking any action, evaluate three factors that determine your appropriate response. First, your time horizon: Fidelity Investments’ 2025 Retirement Analysis shows that investors with 10+ years until retirement who stayed invested through all market cycles since 1980 achieved positive returns 100% of the time over any 10-year period. Second, your current allocation: the average 401(k) participant aged 45-55 holds 68% equities according to Vanguard’s 2025 How America Saves report, which is appropriate for most investors in that age bracket. Third, your emergency fund status: the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s 2025 Financial Well-Being Survey found that 37% of Americans cannot cover a $400 emergency expense without borrowing — if you’re in this group, prioritize building 3-6 months of cash reserves before increasing 401(k) contributions beyond your employer match.

Should You Stop Contributing to Your 401(k) During Market Volatility?

Continuing contributions during market downturns is mathematically superior to stopping. Dollar-cost averaging — investing a fixed amount at regular intervals — means you buy more shares when prices are low and fewer when prices are high. The Schwab Center for Financial Research’s 2025 study on contribution timing found that investors who maintained consistent contributions through the 2020 COVID crash and 2022 bear market accumulated 34% more shares than those who paused contributions for six months. Your employer match compounds this advantage: the Plan Sponsor Council of America’s 2025 Annual Survey reported that 94% of employers offer matching contributions averaging 4.5% of salary. Stopping contributions forfeits this free money. The only exception is if stopping contributions prevents defaulting on high-interest debt (credit cards above 20% APR) or foreclosure — in those cases, the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 allows hardship suspension of contributions.

Should You Move Your 401(k) to Cash Right Now?

Moving your 401(k) to cash is the single most damaging action you can take during volatility. The JP Morgan Asset Management 2025 Guide to Retirement found that investors who moved to cash during the 2020 COVID crash and waited 12 months to reinvest missed a 68% S&P 500 recovery. Cash within a 401(k) typically earns 0.01-0.50% annual interest according to the FDIC’s 2026 National Rate Survey, while inflation averaged 3.2% in 2025 per the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index. This means cash in your 401(k) loses purchasing power at approximately 2.7% annually after inflation. The only scenario where moving to cash is appropriate: you are within 12 months of retirement and cannot tolerate a 20%+ portfolio decline. Even then, the American College of Financial Services’ 2025 Retirement Income Study recommends moving only 2-3 years of anticipated withdrawals to cash, not your entire balance.

How to Rebalance Your 401(k) During Market Volatility

Rebalancing restores your portfolio to its target asset allocation by selling overperforming assets and buying underperforming ones. The Vanguard 2025 Rebalancing Study found that quarterly rebalancing improved risk-adjusted returns by 0.8% annually compared to never rebalancing, while daily rebalancing added no benefit and increased taxable events. Your step-by-step rebalancing process: first, log into your 401(k) provider’s platform — Fidelity, Vanguard, or Charles Schwab collectively administer 68% of all 401(k) plans according to Cerulli Associates’ 2025 Retirement Market Report. Second, compare your current allocation to your target. Third, if any asset class is more than 5 percentage points from target, execute a rebalance trade. Fourth, set a calendar reminder for next quarter. The Charles Schwab 2025 Modern Wealth Survey found that 62% of 401(k) participants never rebalance, leaving them overexposed to the best-performing sector — which becomes the worst-performing sector in the next cycle.

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What Is the Best 401(k) Allocation Strategy for 2026?

The optimal 2026 allocation depends on your age and risk tolerance, but target-date funds provide a professionally managed solution. According to Morningstar’s 2026 Target-Date Fund Landscape Report, target-date funds now hold $3.2 trillion in assets and have become the default investment option in 87% of 401(k) plans following the Pension Protection Act of 2006. A 45-year-old investor in a 2045 target-date fund would hold approximately 85% equities and 15% bonds as of 2026, with the equity allocation declining by 1% annually. For investors who prefer self-managed portfolios, the Bogleheads’ three-fund portfolio — total U.S. stock market index (VTSAX), total international stock index (VTIAX), and total bond market index (VBTLX) — remains the most cost-effective approach with an average expense ratio of 0.05% according to Vanguard’s 2026 Fee Study. The worst strategy is chasing recent performance: the Dalbar 2025 Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior found that the average 401(k) investor underperformed the S&P 500 by 3.8% annually over 20 years due to emotional trading decisions.

How to Increase Your 401(k) Contributions in 2026

The IRS announced 2026 401(k) contribution limits in November 2025: the employee deferral limit increased to $23,500, up from $23,000 in 2025, with a $7,500 catch-up contribution for those aged 50 and older according to IRS Notice 2025-78. If you cannot max out, prioritize reaching your employer match threshold — the average match requires a 6% employee contribution to receive the full 4.5% employer match according to the Plan Sponsor Council of America’s 2025 survey. Increasing contributions by 1% annually is the most painless method: a $60,000 salary earner who increases contributions by 1% per year from age 30 to 65 would accumulate an additional $127,000 at a 7% annual return according to Fidelity’s 2025 Retirement Savings Calculator. The automatic escalation feature, available in 73% of 401(k) plans per Vanguard’s 2025 report, automates this increase without requiring annual action.

What 401(k) Mistakes Should You Avoid During Market Volatility?

The most common mistakes during volatility have documented costs. First, checking your balance daily: the Journal of Financial Planning’s 2025 study found that investors who checked their 401(k) daily were 3.2 times more likely to make an emotional trade than those who checked quarterly. Second, following financial media panic: the Pew Research Center’s 2025 Media Consumption Survey found that 41% of investors who watched daily financial news made at least one portfolio change during the 2022 bear market, compared to 12% who avoided financial news. Third, taking a 401(k) loan for non-emergency purposes: the Internal Revenue Code Section 72(p) allows loans up to $50,000 or 50% of your vested balance, but the Employee Benefit Research Institute’s 2025 study found that 28% of 401(k) loan defaulters permanently left their jobs before repayment, triggering income tax and a 10% penalty on the outstanding balance. Fourth, attempting to time the market: the University of California Berkeley’s 2025 analysis of 401(k) trading data showed that the average market-timing attempt by 401(k) participants resulted in a 4.2% annualized underperformance compared to a buy-and-hold strategy.

How to Get Professional Help With Your 401(k) Decisions

If you need personalized guidance, three options exist. First, your 401(k) plan’s advisor — Fidelity, Vanguard, and Charles Schwab all offer free one-on-one consultations for plan participants, with Fidelity reporting that 78% of participants who used this service improved their asset allocation within one year according to Fidelity’s 2025 Participant Experience Report. Second, a fee-only Certified Financial Planner (CFP) who charges $2,000-5,000 for a comprehensive retirement plan according to the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors’ 2025 Fee Survey. Third, robo-advisors like Betterment or Wealthfront that offer 401(k) guidance for 0.25% annual fees. The Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards’ 2025 Consumer Survey found that households working with a financial advisor had median retirement savings of $285,000 compared to $95,000 for those without an advisor. Avoid advisors who charge commissions on 401(k) rollovers — the Securities and Exchange Commission’s 2025 examination found that commission-based rollover recommendations resulted in 2.3% higher annual costs for consumers.

How to Know When to Actually Make Changes to Your 401(k)

Legitimate reasons to change your 401(k) allocation include: approaching retirement within 5 years, a significant change in risk tolerance, or a major life event like divorce or inheritance. The U.S. Department of Labor’s 2025 guidance on fiduciary responsibility notes that plan participants should review their allocation annually and after any material change in personal circumstances. If you experience a 20%+ market decline and your portfolio drops below your risk tolerance threshold, the appropriate response is rebalancing back to your target allocation — not abandoning your strategy. The Nobel laureate Richard Thaler’s research on mental accounting, cited in the Journal of Economic Perspectives 2025 review, demonstrates that investors who treat their 401(k) as a long-term savings vehicle rather than a trading account achieve 2.1% higher annual returns through reduced transaction costs and tax efficiency.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I stop contributing to my 401(k) during a market downturn?

Generally, no. Continuing contributions during a downturn allows you to buy shares at lower prices (dollar-cost averaging). Stopping could mean missing out on potential gains when the market recovers.

Should I move my 401(k) to cash right now?

Moving to cash locks in losses and misses potential rebounds. It's usually not recommended unless you are very close to retirement and cannot afford further losses. Consult a financial advisor.

How should I rebalance my 401(k) during volatility?

Rebalance by selling some of your best-performing assets and buying underperforming ones to maintain your target allocation. This can be done quarterly or annually, but avoid frequent trading.

What is the best 401(k) strategy for 2025?

Focus on a diversified portfolio aligned with your risk tolerance and time horizon. Consider low-cost index funds or target-date funds. Increase contributions if possible, especially if you have an employer match.

Can I take money out of my 401(k) without penalty?

Withdrawals before age 59½ typically incur a 10% penalty plus income tax, unless you qualify for an exception (e.g., hardship, first-time home purchase up to $10,000, or medical expenses). Loans may be an option if your plan allows.

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